Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Conifer Forests of the Intermountain West
This research proposal was developed by David R. Bowling, Greg Maurer, James R. Ehleringer, and Thomas H. Painter through the Departments of Biology and Geography at the University of Utah. The proposal is focused on forests in alpine areas and investigates these areas in regards to the impacts of climate change on the availability of water. Spring melt is the annual event under investigation because it is the timing by which stored water in the form of snowpack melts and is no longer available. The proposal attributes two factors that lead to a shorter snow covered season, both being intensified by climate change. The first is rising mean temperatures leading to an increase in the proportion of precipitation in the form of rain instead of snow. The other is an increase in dust deposition on snow. Dust deposition on snow decreases the albedo, lowering the reflectivity, of the snow thus accelerating the melt of the snow. The research question presented by the proposal is “How will climate change influence conifer forest distributions and carbon cycling in the Intermountain West?” The proposed three-year study combines observational and manipulative field experiments to determine the “functioning, distribution, and carbon stocks of conifer forests in the region.” [1] Three forests were selected at different elevations experiencing differing levels of precipitation and ranges of temperature. The observational experiment will be conducted by temporarily installing devices that measure weather, soil moisture and temperature, and tree sap flow. Other devices will be temporarily placed to gauge the degree of carbon cycling occurring in each area. The experimental manipulations will simulate the presence of dust deposition on the snow surface by using a leaf blower and material sourced southern Utah. Dust will be added to the surface of the snow on a weekly recurrence interval. This will simulate future dust deposition on snow and will be used to determine the timing of an early spring melt due to dust deposition.
The proposal clearly discusses what is under investigation, the topic, the question being answered and has a detailed description of how data will be collected. A strength of the proposal was providing alternate sites for conducting the research that had similar attributes to the preferred sites. This enables flexibility for the research in the case a site becomes unavailable. Another strength was citing work done recently to the time of the proposal. This provides up to date information and data about the topic. One aspect of the proposal that could have been expanded upon was more explanation of the problem and why it is important to develop a greater understanding of the subject. The problem is the aspect which gives the proposal merit and thus should be elaborated.
The concepts discussed in this research pertain to my topic on avalanche risk in two ways. Primarily, both proposals are looking at attributing changes in observed patterns to climate change. Secondly, the presence and health of trees decrease the risk of avalanches because trees stabilize the snowpack, inhibiting slides. Declining health of alpine forests could be another trigger for why more fatalities from avalanches are occurring. This proposal also demonstrated how specific observational data can be created in the field by simulating an event, dust deposition in this case, and through the use of control sites conclusions can be made. This is imperative for my proposal because observing the impact of natural dust deposition on layers of snow that have been buried by new snow could be immensely difficult to get the timing right for observations. However, if dust is artificially introduced more variables can be controlled and more accurate results generated.
- https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5068763.pdf