Identifying exact species extinction risks has been a challenge for scientists for centuries. The IUCN Red List is the most widely accepted classification system, but is sometimes biased towards larger and more easily sampled species. In the article “An integrated trait-based framework to predict extinction risk and guide conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots,” the authors use base knowledge from the IUCN Red List population trends and “expert-perceived” vulnerability of environmental changes as the response variables for determining the risk of extinction for 195 amphibians in the Brazilian Cerrado. This is the world’s most biodiverse savanna as well as the largest. With the creation of this specialized extinction risk framework, the results show that the worldwide extinction risk for amphibians is underestimated by the IUCN.

The data utilized to address the research topic was reports of acts, events or behavior and acts, behavior, or events. The goal of building this framework is so that any biologist can add additional species-specific predicators on top of the basic data obtained from the IUCN. With that goal in mind, the authors obtained that data from public records from the IUCN, expert knowledge and observations; a very in depth data collection method. Although an extensive data collection method, the analysis of the data was through random forest models. They then assessed the accuracy of the models through the percentage of species correctly classified, the percentage of species not threatened that are correctly classified, and percentage of threatened species that are correctly classified with a statistical constant testing for agreement between the two classification systems.

Overall, this article was the most helpful article I have found on my research topic so far. It highlighted various ways to define priority areas for species with a lack of data and what predictors to use when attempting to create a more in depth classification system. This article also makes me question how many more taxa are underestimated for extinction risks. It is a daunting task for a scientist striving to save all the species we co-inhabit this planet with.

Joana Ribeiro, Guarino R. Colli, Janalee P. Caldwell, Amadeu M.V.M. Soares, An integrated trait-based framework to predict extinction risk and guide conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots, Biological Conservation, Volume 195, March 2016, Pages 214-223, ISSN 0006-3207, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.12.042.